
Not so long ago I was pretty dismissive about the future potential for iPhone app development. I had believed that in some respects this phenomenon was done, dusted....over. I was convinced that businesses (except the very innovative and very lucky few) were going to find it increasingly difficult to justify app development in 2011 and beyond.
Well, I think I was wrong. Very wrong, actually. Naive, even. I'd probably listened to too many people who talk about Android's aggressive growth as a platform, or Symbian's market share, or people who just think so far ahead about 'mobile' that their advice is inadvertently hard to apply in the here and now.
I didn't think businesses/developers could expect to charge for their apps. But, as it turns out, not all iPhone Apps are free. Far from it, actually. Roughly 58% of apps in the app store are paid apps. Furthermore, the current average price of an app in the store is around £1.75p (and if you take in to account the large number of free games in the app store, for many non-game apps, the price is considerably higher.).
What's more, the app economy itself is showing signs of evolving and maturing. Many big content publishers are now moving to subscription payment models (Washington Post, Fairfax Digital, Guardian, FT, The Times - to name a few.)
I also very much under-rated the efficiency and growing significance of software and hardware ecosystems. In this regard (like it or not) the reality is that Apple have created something so powerful through the combination of iTunes, app stores and decent hardware that everyone will struggle, not to catch-up, but simply to do as good a job.
You only have to look at the UK online movie-on-demand market to see an example of the importance of the software/hardware ecosystem and the pivotal place of Apple in it. In 2009, 90% of online on-demand movie purchases went on to either an Apple device, Microsoft X-box or Sony PlayStation. Oh, and most of that 90% was Apple.
In addition to the above, there's one other basic fact I was ignorant of. I simply didn't get how many people were using mobile devices and, more to the point, the profound impact that this is having on how we consume digital media. Morgan Stanley suggest that the number of global mobile internet users will match the number of global desktop internet users by as early as 2014. That is an incredible stat (if, indeed, it does actually happen.)
Just as interesting is what folk are using their mobiles for. Predictably, texting, email and news are right up there when it comes to current and predicted trends in mobile phone usage. But, the growth in popularity of things like social networking and banking/purchasing really opens the window on what kind of central role 'mobile devices' will increasingly play in our day to day lives over the coming years.
Plus, lets not forget the staggering usage stats of a device like Apple's iTouch. Users spend, on average, as much as 100 minutes a day on their apps. How do they get the time?
It's stats like these that make me agree with experts who predict a three-fold growth in the already $10 billion strong app market in the next 5 years.
Despite the competition from Android and Microsoft and everyone else, I just feel that Apple will hold a position in a market which, lets face it, they invented. Sure, more app stores and platforms will develop but, put simply, even if they can match Apple for overall performance - simply through momentum - Apple and iPhone aren't going away anywhere soon.
So, to conclude, it is through a mixture of a maturing and more 'business friendly' app pricing market, the pivotal role Apple still plays in leading the way in software/hardware ecosystems and the very fact that more and more of us go 'mobile' in our behaviours each day, that I think iPhone apps should still make it in to business strategies in 2011.
Sorry Apple. I should have known better than to doubt you.